Record 3,039 New Cases and 88 Deaths Reported, Yesterday.

Pakistan saw another gloomy day yesterday as 3,039 new coronavirus cases emerged in the country and 88 patients died of COVID-19 related complications in just 24 hours, marking the deadliest day of the outbreak yet in the country.

While 1,140 patients recovered from the virus yesterday, 3,039 new cases emerged as Sindh reported record 1,247 new cases in a single day. Punjab added another 952 cases while KP said 473 new cases were tested positive in the province, which is a provincial record yet.

Islamabad also registered record 226 new cases in a single day.

In terms of deaths, Sindh reported 38 while Punjab registered 36 patients dying of the infection in just 24 hours.

KP, Islamabad and GB reported 8, 4 and 2 deaths respectively.

Number of daily tests reached 14,972 — which were higher than previous seven days but still lesser than the capacity the country has. While provinces are moving to enhance their testing capacity, it is now clear that the outbreak has gripped the country and only more and more cases will emerge in coming days.

Increase in daily new cases is recorded around 15%, however, the number of deaths have doubled since the week before Eid. This, rather sudden and major spike, is due to daily new cases that almost doubled during first and second week of May.

It is feared that daily deaths are likely to remain the same for next several days (if not weeks).

At this stage, we must find ways or hope that daily new cases will flatten in coming days to reach the peak. Once that happens, that’s only when we can expect the death rate to come down. Or there will be no stopping.

More in below table and graphs:

Confirmed CasesIn 24 HoursTests in 24 HoursDeathsLast 24 Hours

2,429 New Cases and 78 Deaths Reported as Eid Backlog Clears

Pakistan yesterday reported a total of 2,429 new coronavirus cases and recorded 78 new deaths due to coronavirus related complications during a single day, up from 57 deaths a day ago.

It is thought that such high number of deaths (during past two days) are due to backlog because of Eid Holidays, however, NCOC didn’t say anything on the matter. A more clearer picture will emerge after 3-4 days to rightly ascertain the situation.

The theory of backlog is also backed by the fact that Sindh reported 2, 5 and 6 deaths on May 25th, 26 and 27th respectively; way lower than its usual double digit death figure. Similarly Punjab reported 8 and 5 deaths on May 23rd and May 24th, way lower than its usual double digit death figure.

Sindh reported 31 deaths yesterday while Punjab said 29 patients died of Coronavirus in the province during past 24 hours.

KP reported 13 fatalities yesterday while Balochistan, Islamabad and AJK recorded 3, 1 and 1 death respectively.

Nonetheless, 78 is a notable increase in daily death number and it would concern a lot of minds. NCOC should come forward and clarify the situation to avoid any public panic.

As it has been said repeatedly, cases and deaths would grow after Eid, and next few days will be critical to watch the numbers.

Since the lock-down in Pakistan (except schools and Shaadi halls) was fully lifted on May 9th, 2020 — the cases that are yet reported are pretty much in-line with usual growth rate that we have been seeing for past two and half months. Actually, the growth rate has declined during past two weeks.

Graph clearly shows that new cases per week are growing, however, the growth rate has been on the decline. It has come down from around 100% during 7 Apr to 13 Apr to around 12% during the week before Eid.

This essentially means that the number of new cases will keep emerging, but the growth rate will die-down; and that’s when the peak will be reached.

If such is the case, it appears that lifting of lock-down didn’t impact the numbers much, especially after no social distancing was observed in markets and bazaars during last 15 days of Ramzan.

If cases continue to remain steady in next few days, it will be an indication that Pakistan’s peak could be just weeks away, if not days. For that, we will have to watch next few days before drawing a conclusion.

More in below table and graphs.

Confirmed CasesIn 24 HoursTests in 24 HoursDeathsLast 24 Hours

2,636 New Cases and 57 Deaths Reported in Just 24 Hours

In the deadliest day since the emergence of the COVID-19 outbreak, Pakistan recorded 2,636 new coronavirus cases and 57 deaths in 24 hours.

Of the new cases, 1,103 cases were reported from Sindh, while another 927 cases were reported in Punjab. Balochistan, KP and Islamabad recorded 312, 359 and 85 new cases respectively.

As expected, cases surged yesterday as it was the first working day after Eid holidays, with all shifts operating at hospitals.

Of new deaths, Punjab reported a record 29 single day deaths. Another 16 patients died in Sindh, while KP reported 7 new deaths. Islamabad and Balochistan reported 3 and 2 deaths respectively.

Numbers are growing and it appears that the steady increase in cases will become a surge in the coming days, mainly due to SOP violations during last week of Ramzan and during Eid.

With the new surge, Pakistan is expected to hit a new peak and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight nor how serious the situation might become before the curve is somewhat flattened again.

More in below table and graphs:

Confirmed CasesIn 24 HoursTests in 24 HoursDeathsLast 24 Hours